农村社会保障制度是扩大农村居民消费需求,促进我国内需增长型经济发展的关键问题,对于促进我国经济增长方式的转变具有重要的现实意义。本研究运用我国1983—2013年的全国数据,在协整检验的基础上,通过构建向量误差修正模型分析我国农村社会保障制度对农村居民消费行为的影响。研究表明,农村社会保障支出与农村居民消费存在长期的协整关系,但社会保障制度对农村居民消费行为的影响力度较为微弱,且短期内社会保障支出对农村居民消费产生抑制作用。因此,农村社会保障制度的完善需要长期推行,以营造一个有利于农村居民消费的制度环境。
Rural social security is the point of expanding consumer demand in rural areas and promoting the growth of domestic de- mand for economic development. It has important practical significance for promoting the transformation of economic growth mode in China. Therefore, the paper used the national date from 1983 to 2013 on empirical analysis, construction the Vector Error Correction Model to research the relationship between rural social security and rural consumer behavior based on co-integration analysis. The re- sult showed that rural social security expenditure and rural consumer behavior had a long-term co-integration relationship, but the influence was relatively weak, and in the short term, the social security expenditure had a restraining effect on the consumption of ru- ral residents. Therefore, the perfection of the rural social security system needed to be carried out for a long time, to create a good en- vironment for rural residents consumption.