在文献梳理的基础上构建经济可持续发展的系统动力学模型,以OECD国家为例进行系统仿真与预测。分析生态创新的灵敏度,分析结果显示传统发展模式难以实现可持续发展,而生态创新可通过增进产业关联和减少环境污染这两条路径,使经济增长同时节约资源和保护环境,实现经济的可持续发展,从而论证生态创新对中国"绿色发展"的必要性。
The article constructs a system dynamic model based on reference carding, simulates the OECD countries and forecasts the trends of theirs. Then the article reveals the paths of eco--innovation prorate the economics sustainable development by comparing traditional development. The two paths are enhancing the industrial association and reducing the pollution which proves the necessity of eco--innovation for "green development" in China.