笔者采用Clements和Krolzig参数检验方法,利用我国1979年第1季度一2009年第4季度实际季度GDP增长率数据,对我国经济周期的深度、尖度及陡度型非对称、经济周期的划分以及持续性等特征进行实证分析。结果表明,我国经济周期具有陡度型非对称特征,但并不具备深度型和尖度型非对称特征;我国经济从低速增长状态转移到高速增长状态的可能性较大,远远大于经济从低速增长状态转移到适速增长状态的可能性;经济处于适速增长阶段的持续性最高,处于高速增长阶段的持续性次之,而低速阶段持续性最低,且它具有一定的惰性但又具有较高的概率转向高速增长阶段。
This paper analyzes the asymmetric properties of business cycles with Clements and Krolzig' s parametric tests by investiga- ting the partition method, persistence characteristics, and three types of asymmetry: deepness, steepness and sharpness, based on GDP growth rate data from 1979Q1 to 2009Q4 in China. The results show that non-deep and non-sharp property is not applicable to Chinese business cycle and Clements and Krolzig' s parametric tests strongly accept steepness ; The probability of a low-growth regime followed by a high-growth regime is more likely than the probability of a low-growth regime preceded by a normal-growth regime. Final- ly, the duration for staying in the normal-growth is longest among three regimes.