资产价格持续上涨,使居民资产投资股票和房地产市场意愿逐渐增强,改变了居民的理性预期,使资产投资收入从暂时性收入定性转变为持久性收入,进而带来了消费的增长。股票和房地产作为居民资产的重要组成,其价格上涨带来了我国居民资产结构的巨大变化。本文选取全国31个省际2005年6月至2007年11月间的面板数据作为研究对象,运用0LS方法和广义矩方法(GMM),分析了股票市场和房地产价格上涨引起的居民资产结构变化,以及对居民消费带来的冲击。实证结果表明:股票市场对居民消费影响显著为正,房地产市场则相反。
The continuous rise of assets price gradually alters the rational expectations of residents and enhances investment in the stock and real estate market and changes the temporary income into lasting income, thereby bringing the growth of consumption. As an important eomponent of residents' income, stock and real estate assets' rise has brought great changes in the assets structure. This paper selects panel data from June 2005 to November 2007 in 31 provinces, using OI..S methods and the GMM method to analyze structural changes in residents' assets and the impact on the consumer caused by the rise of stock market and real estate prices. The empirical studies show the stock market has positive influence on household consumption, but the real estate market has negative influence.