中文摘要：

基于2006-2015年莆田市城市主干路交通噪声监测数据,分析道路交通噪声的变化趋势,结果表明, 随着交通量的增加,主干路噪声水平一直呈上升趋势.根据主干路等效声级与交通量的拟合关系,建立线性、 非线性回归方程,并借助灰色系统理论建立主干路的灰色GM（1,1）的预测模型.利用相关指标对模型进行精 确度的检验,运用模型对十三五期间主干路交通噪声进行预测,结果显示：2016-2020年主干路的交通噪声 将会向劣势发展,需进行防治.

英文摘要：

Based on the traffic noise monitoring data of urban main roads of ten years？ dura-tion （2006-2015） in Putian city, this paper makes an analysis of the changing trend of road traffic noise. The results show that the noise level of main roads has been increasing with the increase of traffic volume. According to the fitting relation between equivalent sound level and traffic volume,linear and nonlinear regression equation is established,and the GM（1, 1） prediction model is established by grey system theory. Traffic noise of urban main roads is predicted during the 13th Five-year Plan on accuracy test. The measures should be taken to control the aggravating situation of the traffic noise in 2016-2020.