中文摘要：

在分析树木生长对气候要素响应的基础上,利用采自天山中段南坡夫斯坦沟的雪岭云杉树轮宽度年表,重建了巴仑台地区1360～2004 A.D.当年7月至次年6月的降水量序列,方差解释量达53%（调整自由度后为52%）。交叉检验结果表明重建方程稳定可信。过去645 a以来,巴仑台地区的降水量变化存在12个偏少阶段和12个偏多阶段。巴仑台地区降水量重建序列存在10.7～11、6.7和2.1 a的显著准周期及16.5～17.2和2.4～6.6 a的较显著准周期,并且在1496 A.D.前后发生了降水量由少向多的突变。

英文摘要：

Dendroclimatology is one of the important methods for examining the past global climate changes and the tree-ring data were used widely as an important archive in paleoclimatic research because of its precise dating,annual resolution,and high correlation with instrumental meteorological data.Based on tree-ring chronologies,long-timescale climate variations have been reconstructed on both regional and hemispheric spatial scales.The study area,the Baluntai region is located on the southern slope of the mid-Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang.So far there are a few dendroclimatogical studies being carried out in this region.The studies were focused on the analysis of tree-ring chronologies＇ statistics and correlation of chronologies with meteorological data,but the reconstruction of climatic variations has not been done.Because of this,it is very important to reconstruct the climatic variation series in this region in order to recognize the climatic variations on the southern slope of the mid-Tianshan Mountains in the past.In the summer of 2005,66 spruce（Picea schrenkiana） tree-ring samples were collected from Fustan Gully（FST）（42°45′15.9＂N,86°27′40.0＂E）,which is located in a mountainous area of Baluntai region.Selected trees did not have outward signs of disturbance（e.g.,abrasion scarring,cut branches）.Tree-ring samples were prepared,cross-dated and measured following conventional procedures.The site（FST） of tree-ring width residual chronologies was chosen in this study.In addition,meteorological data of Baluntai station close to sampling site were used.The calculation shows that the tree-ring width residual chronology（RESt＋1） is significantly correlated with the precipitation from the current July to next June（r=0.73,p0.01,N=44）.In this paper,tree-ring width residual chronology（RES t＋1） has been used to reconstruct the precipitation（from the current July to next June） of this region since 1360 A.D.and the explained variance of the function was 52%（F=48.12,p0.01）.A