中文摘要：

基于环境视角和中国的实践,区分出三种发展模式：＂粗放式＂发展、＂底线式＂发展和绿色发展。并通过梳理发现改革开放以来的中国经济发展经历了从＂粗放式＂发展到＂底线式＂发展的演变历程,未来还将进一步转向绿色发展。运用非参数方法构造生产者减排行为模型以刻画不同的经济发展模式,通过定量测算＂底线式＂发展和绿色发展模式下的环境排放和经济产出差异,模拟发展方式转变对中国环境经济的影响。最后,结合当前的中国实践,从能否促进发展方式转变的角度对结构调整、市场化改革等施政路径和外部制度环境进行评估与反思。研究结果表明：（1）环境方面,发展方式转变将使得中国的排放水平较当前减少约16%~22%。样本区间内,环境效应保持了总体平稳上升的趋势;（2）经济方面,发展方式转变将对中国经济形成两种截然相反的效应（＂挤出＂效应和创新补偿效应）。由于发展方式转变带来的创新补偿效应明显大于＂挤出＂效应,从而可实现环境与经济的双赢发展。这一经济效应约占GDP的3%~10%,但呈现出逐年衰减的态势;（3）能源结构、产业结构、市场化程度、财政分权和外商投资均对发展方式转变有显著影响,经济发展水平与发展方式转变呈＂U＂型关系。

英文摘要：

Based on the environmental perspective and the practice of China, three development patterns were distinguished： extensive development, ＇bottom line＇ development, and green development. Finding that since the reform and opening up, China＇s economic development has experienced from ＇extensive＇ pattern to ＇bottom line＇ pattern. And in the future, the development pattern is sure to transform to green development. To assess the effects of the shift towards green development on China＇s environment and economy, this paper applies the nonparametric method to construct a producer reduction behavior model to depict different patterns of economic development.Through the quantitative calculation of the difference in environmental emission and economic output between the＇bottom line＇ and green development patterns, this paper makes a simulation of the impact of the transformation of development patterns on China＇s environment and economy. Finally, by combining with the current practice in China, this paper further makes an evaluation and reflection of the government＇s polices（e.g., structural adjustment and marketization reform） and external system environment from the angle of whether they can promote the transformation of development pattern. The results show that：（1） In the environmental aspect, the transformation of development pattern from the ＇bottom line＇ one to green one will make China＇s emissions decrease about16-22% compared with the current total emissions. During the sample period, the environment effect experienced an overall upward trend;（2） In the economic aspect, the transformation of development pattern will induce two opposite effects（＇bottom line＇ one effect and innovation compensation effect）. As the Innovation compensation effect caused by the transformation of the development pattern is bigger than the crowding out effect, China can realize a win-win development of environment and economy. This economic effect accounts for about 3-10% of GDP, but th