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中文摘要：
基于矿产资源安全视角构建一个包含进口铁矿石价格冲击的动态CGE模型,系统研究进口铁矿石价格冲击对我国经济的影响。实证研究表明：进口铁矿石价格上涨对我国GDP、投资、就业、社会福利和进出口等主要经济指标均有不利影响;CPI在进口铁矿石价格冲击下的变化不确定,但在进口铁矿石价格涨幅过高时,CPI上升;采矿业是进口铁矿石价格上涨的直接受益者,而农业、钢铁业、制造业和建筑业等各部门均受到不利影响。
英文摘要：
Based on the perspective of mineral resource security, this paper establishes a dynamic CGE model containing the impact of imported iron ore price, and systematically studies the influence of the impact of imported iron ore price on China＇s economy. The empirical study indicates that： the rising price of imported iron ore has an adverse impact on China＇s GDP, investment, employment, social welfare and import and export; the variation of CPI is uncertain under the impact of imported iron ore price, but it rises with the surplus rising imported iron ore price; The mining industry is the direct beneficia- ries from the rising price of imported iron ore, while the agriculture, iron steel industry, manufacturing industry and construction industry are all impacted adversely.
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