基于多维信息溢出视角,本文采用有向无环图和溢出指数模型,以上海期货交易所(SHFE)、伦敦金属交易所(LME)、纽约商品交易所(COMEX)三大期铜市场为例,对1994-2015年间中外期铜市场的动态联动性进行了研究,考察了中国期铜市场国际定价能力的现状及动态趋势。结果显示,中外期铜市场的收益溢出效应要强于波动溢出效应,并且收益率溢出与波动率溢出在动态路径上存在显著性差异,收益溢出指数具有明显的上升趋势,而波动率溢出指数则呈现较强的不规则波动;此外,SHFE期铜市场的国际定价能力表现出阶段性特征,在2003年10月以前呈现逐渐上升趋势,之后有所下降,在2007年后又得到显著提升,但国际市场对SHFE期铜市场的信息溢出强度要高于SHFE期铜市场的对外溢出,显示现阶段SHFE期铜市场的国际定价能力还相对较弱。
With the further development of economic globalization and the increasing influence of Chinese factor,the price linkage mechanism of domestic and foreign metal futures markets as well as international pricing issues have drawn public's attention.Based on the multi-dimensional information spillovers and by taking the examples of SHFE(Shanghai Futures Exchange),LME(London Metal Exchange)and COMEX(New York Commodity Exchange),Directed Acyclic Graphs and Information Spillover Index model are used to study the dynamic linkage between domestic and foreign copper futures markets from1994 to 2015,and the current situation and dynamic trend of international pricing power of Chinese copper futures market are also measured.The results show that the return spillovers are much stronger than volatility spillovers,and the dynamic of return and volatility spillovers show significant difference,the return spillovers display a significant increasing trend,while the volatility spillovers are more influenced by extreme events like financial crisis.Furthermore,the international pricing power of SHFE copper market shows the characteristics of stages.It presents a gradually rising trend before October 2003,then falls back,and significantly improves after 2007.But the information spillover strength from international market to SHFE copper market is higher than the foreign overflow of SHFE copper market,which demonstrats that the international pricing power of Chinese copper futures market is still relatively weak.Our findings can not only provide valuable market information for market participants and regulators,but also have important theoretical value and practical significance for correctly understanding the role of Chinese metal futures market in international commodity pricing,while also accelerats the development of Chinese metal futures market.