本文将资金供给方银行和资金需求方企业共同置于一个具有金融内生性的DSGE模型,通过分别引入动态拨备和动产抵押,同时从信贷资金供求两端入手,寻求缓解信贷顺周期性的解决方法。金融冲击下的模拟结果显示:(1)适度提高动产抵押在企业抵押贷款中的比重有助于缓解企业融资难问题,对经济下行期信贷过度紧缩造成的经济波动具有明显抑制作用;(2)相比传统的后顾性拨备,具有前瞻性和逆周期特征的动态拨备可以更好的熨平经济波动;(3)动态拨备力度从高和动产抵押力度适中的政策搭配导致福利损失最小化,而动态拨备和动产抵押力度双高的政策搭配会使福利损失最大化。本文建议:为缓解经济下行引发的信贷过度紧缩问题,可加快构建和完善动态拨备政策,同时应科学把握动产抵押的实施力度以进一步增强宏观审慎政策的有效性。
This paper puts the credit supply side bank and credit demand side enterprise into a DSGE model including financial endogeneity. It seeks to get the solution to relieve credit pro - cyclicality from the credit supply side and demand side meanwhile by the introduction of dynamic provisioning and chattel mortgage. The simulation results based on financial shock show: first, raising the proportion of chattel mortgage in mortgage loan moderately helps alleviate the financing difficulties and could obviously inhibit economic volatility caused by excessive credit crunch on the background of the downturn ; second, the forward - looking counter - cyclical dynamic provisioning policy is better than the traditional backward -looking provisioning policy in ironing economic volatility; third, the combination of high enforcement strength in dynamic provisioning policy and moderate enforcement strength in chattel mortgage leads to minimal welfare loss, the combination of both high enforcement strength in two policies leads to maximal welfare loss. It suggests that making and improving dynamic provisioning policy quickly could effectively alleviate the excessive credit crunch caused by economic downturn and it should set enforcement strength in chattel mortgage scientifically to further improve macro - prudential policy' s effectiveness.