中文摘要：

岩体稳定性预报是微震监测工作的重要组成部分。探讨微震活动性参数变化作为岩体稳定性预测的可行性,结合用沙坝矿实际生产过程中观测到的现象,提出微震监测岩体失稳预报的一般模式。根据b值在岩体失稳前先增大后减小的趋势作为危险预警初始条件;并将能量指数、施密特数急剧下降以及累积视体积增加的时间段作为岩体失稳的预警期,将事件数的急剧下降作为危险的临界状态。用沙坝矿根据这一原理建立的岩体失稳预报模式可以达到采场失稳的智能预报,解决了人工判别预警期过程中效率低的难题,保障矿山的生产工作。

英文摘要：

The prediction of rock mass stability is an important part of microseismic monitoring. The feasibility of taking the change of microseismicity parameters in the prediction of rock mass stability was discussed. Combined with the phenomena observed in practical production process of Shaba Mine,a general mode on prediction of rock mass instability based on microseismic monitoring was put forward. The trend of b value which increases at first and then decreases before rock mass instability was taken as the initial condition for danger warning. The time period with sharp fall of energy index and Schmidt number and increase of cumulative apparent volume were taken as the early warning period of rock mass instability. The sharp drop of events number was taken as a critical state of danger. The prediction mode of rock mass instability established according to the above principle in Shaba Mine could achieve the intelligent prediction of stope instability,and it solved the problem of low efficiency in the process of artificial discrimination early warning,which can guarantee the work safety in mine.