中文摘要：

针对中心城区公交设站密集、站间距小、公交客流量大的特征,以提升公交服务水平和吸引力为目标,提出一种面向小站距公交车的到站时间预告方法。通过公交车载播报系统和站点预告系统的实时信息判别公交车的行驶状况,利用运营时间模型预测公交车到达指定站点的时间,并借助站点公告牌将公交到站时间告知给候车乘客。应用案例对该预告方法的适用性和有效性进行检验,分析结果表明该方法具有操作简单、实用性强的特性。

英文摘要：

According to center city bus stations has a compact layout,little stop spacing and large volume of passenger traffic,a bus arrival time prediction method was proposed in this paper,for the sake of enhancing the service level and attraction of public transit.The bus performance was determined through the real-time information of the bus broadcast system and stop prediction system. Then,bus arrival time of the designated stop was predicted by the operating time model. Meanwhile,the information about bus arrival time was released by the stop bulletin board. The case of the prediction method was applied to a test to value its applicability and effectiveness. The analysis results showed that the proposed method was simple to operate and practically useful.