出生性别比持续偏高带来的女性缺失正日益加剧农村男性的婚姻挤压,而农村大龄男性不能结婚有可能对家庭养老功能产生重要影响。本文基于代际支持的投资回报理论,对2008年安徽乙县农村调查数据进行了定量分析。研究发现,儿子的婚姻状态与父母经济支持的获得有密切关系,投资回报理论能较好解释农村大龄未婚男性对父母经济支持较弱的现象;儿子的经济状况、父母的需求和父母对儿子的经济投资都会显著影响父母所获得的经济支持。研究有利于理解男性婚姻挤压对社会养老保障的影响,对及早制定有针对性的社会养老政策具有重要意义。
Phenomenon of "missing women" driven by sustained high sex ratio at birth is increasingly aggravating male marriage squeeze in rural China and rural adult men's not getting married involuntarily is likely to affect function of family support for the elderly.This paper quantitatively analyzes the data from 4 towns in Yi County of Anhui Province in 2008.The results indicate that son's marital status significantly affects their financial support to their parents.Son's income,parental needs and parents' financial investment in their son(s) are also factors having significant effects on financial support to parents.This study is helpful to understand the possible impacts of male marriage squeeze on social security for the elderly and give evidence for making relevant policies.