土地流转是实现农业适度规模经营和农民增收的必经之路,而农业劳动力年龄偏高可能是抑制土地流转的重要因素。基于2013年中国家庭收入调查数据(CHIP2013),本文采用Logit模型考察了劳动力年龄与土地流转的关系。研究发现:当前中国土地流转比率约为30%,且租入率与租出率在不同区域存在显著差异。老年劳动力比重较高的家庭土地流转概率显著偏低,劳动力老龄化抑制土地流转;青年和中年劳动力比重较高的家庭土地流转概率显著增大,前者倾向于租出农地,而后者倾向于租入农地。进一步的研究表明,各年龄段劳动力的比较优势是决定农地如何流转的根源。政策含义是,建立健全农村养老保障体系,降低老龄人口对农地的依赖程度;为非农就业人员提供职业培训,增强农地流转意愿;为农地祖入家庭提供资金与技术支持,增强农地租入意愿,发展适度规模经营。
Land circulation is an important to realizing agriculture moderate scale management and increasing farmer income in China. However, the aging of the agricultural labor force, which has traditionally inhibited land circulation, is intensifying in rural areas. Here, Logit models were established using data from 8051 farm households under the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP2013) conducted by the China Institute for Income Distribution in 2013 to reveal the relationship between the age and farmland transfer. We found that the land transfer rate was about 30% in 2013, and family decisions on whether to participate in land transfer could be rationalized. We found that families with a higher proportion of elderly laborers were not willing to participate in land transfer, and ageing laborers may inhibit the land circulation. On the other hand, families with a higher proportion of young and middle-aged laborers were willing to participate in land transfer; the former tended to rent out farmland and the latter tended to rent in farmland. In addition, we found that the comparative advantages of household laborers based on labor age were the root that determined whether how the household participated in land transfer. Policy implications are that the old-age security system of rural supporting should be established and perfected in order to reduce aging population' s dependence on farmland. Professional training for non-agricultural employment should be provided to enhance farmland transfer intention. Financial and technical support should be provided to develop moderate scale management for farm households that rent in land.