中文摘要：

基于确定策略模型建立了不确定策略的Coumot双寡头模型，用非线性动力学的理论和数值模拟的方法分析了确定和不确定策略下各模型的复杂性．结果是确定性模型会产生分岔，混沌等复杂的动力学现象，而不确定性模型则具有简单的动力学性质．这说明寡头厂商对策略的理性选择会消除市场的不确定性，以避免寡头之间的剧烈竞争．

英文摘要：

A Cournot duopoly model with uncertain strategy is established based on modles with certain strategy and nonlinear dynamics and numerical simulation are implemented to analyze the complexity of the models under the certain and uncertain strategy. Results show that complex dynamics like bifurcation and chaos exist in the certain model while the uncertain one has simple features. It indicates that the uncertainty of the market will be diminished by the oligopolists＇ rational choices and fierce competition between them will be prevented.