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中文摘要：
现代电力系统的调度操作具有复杂性和不确定性的特点,传统经验型电网调度面临严峻的考验。将风险后果值计算引入大规模电网的调度操作中,针对调度令分解而成的每一项操作步骤,提出了操作态和操作发展态的概念,并分别建立了操作态风险后果值和操作发展态风险后果值的计算模型;在风险后果值量化指标方面,从设备重载、断面潮流越限、电压越限和负荷损失4个维度建立了一套能够综合反映电网调度操作风险水平的后果值指标体系;在此基础上,进一步通过对指标的归一化和同度化处理,来量化评估每一项操作步骤的综合风险后果值以及整条调度令的整体风险后果值。最后,将所建立的调度操作风险后果值模型应用到广东电网。计算结果表明,所提出的模型是有效的,适用于实际大规模电网,且在应用过程中能发觉调度令中的高风险操作环节,为从拟令这一电网调度的源头环节上规避可能潜在的风险提供了辨识方法。
英文摘要：
The dispatching operation of modern power grid has the characteristics of complexity and uncertainty,which poses a severe challenge to the traditional dispatching mode based on experience.By introducing risk consequences calculation into large-scale power grid dispatching operation,the concept of operation state and operation developing state is proposed for each of the operating steps decomposed from the dispatching order,and the corresponding calculation model each for the operation state and operation developing state is built.In terms of assessment indices,overload,overload power of control section,voltage violation and loss of load are used as four indices to describe power grid dispatching operation risk.Then normalization and commensurability are used to evaluate the risk consequences of each operation step and of the whole dispatching order.Finally,the proposed model is used to assess operation risk of Guangdong power grid.It is proved that the proposed model is effective and feasible for large-scale power grids.During the risk consequence assessment,high-risk operation steps of the dispatching order can be found out,which provides an identification method to discover potential risk right from the formulation of the dispatching order at the beginning of power grid dispatching.
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