中文摘要：

运用生态足迹理论,计算和分析了重庆市1997-2012年间的生态足迹动态变化过程,并利用SPSS软件对重庆市2013-2022年的生态足迹做出预测。结果表明,重庆市人均生态足迹呈持续增长趋势,人均生态承载力呈逐年递减趋势,从而造成生态赤字逐年扩大。人均生态足迹从1997年的1.795 8 hm2增加到2012年的3.057 5 hm2,人均生态承载力从1997年的0.460 6 hm2下降到2012年的0.434 8 hm2,而生态赤字从1997年的1.299 2 hm2扩大到2012年的2.622 7 hm2;万元GDP生态足迹从1997年的3.3501 hm2减少到2012年的0.782 3 hm2。发展预测结果显示,到2022年,重庆市生态赤字将高达4.275 1 hm2,且生态赤字与总人口呈显著正相关,而与耕地、草地、水域、化石燃料呈显著负相关。

英文摘要：

Based on the ecological footprint method, calculated and analyzed the dynamic change of ecological footprint in Chongqing from1997 to 2012,and predicted the development of the ecological footprint in Chongqing from 2013 to 2022 using SPSS.The results indicate that the ecological footprint per capita of Chongqing city was increasing, the ecological carrying capacity per capita was decreasing year by year, and the ecological deficit was increasing year by year. From 1997 to 2012,the ecological footprint per capita increased from 1.759 8 hm2 to 3.057 5 hm2, the ecological carrying capacity per capita decreased from 0.460 6 hm2 to 0.434 8 hm2, but the ecological deficit showed a trend to increase that enlarges from 1.299 2hm2 to 2.622 7 hm2, while the ecological footprint for ten thousand Yuan GDP decreased from 3.350 1 hm2 to 0.782 3 hm2.Prediction results showed that the ecological deficit were as high as 4.275 1 hm2 by 2022, and the ecological deficit was significantly positive correlation with the total population, while was significantly negative correlation with the land, grassland,water, fossil fuels.