中文摘要：

为使换道辅助系统适应动态的道路交通条件,以模拟驾驶试验数据为依据,提出以目标车道后车的最大减速度和平均减速度为衡量指标,分析换道行为对道路交通安全的影响程度.通过换道影响的K-means聚类分析结果将换道数据分为危险、安全、舒适等3类,对3类换道数据中的运行参数进行对比检验,发现自车速度、速度差、车间距、纵向加速度具有显著差异性;以自车速度、速度差、车间距、纵向加速度为输入特征量,以换道影响的聚类结果为输出特征量,运用支持向量机（SVM）理论建立换道安全性预测模型.预测结果表明,对危险换道行为的预测准确率可以达到91.1%,该模型具有较好的预测准确性.

英文摘要：

In order to adapt the dynamic road traffic conditions for the lane changing assistance system, the maximum and average deceleration of the following vehicle on target lane are presented to analyze the influence degree of lane changing on road traffic safety, based on the simulated driving test data. The data are divided into three categories by K- means, such as danger, safety and comfort. The results show that egovehicle velocity, velocity difference and distance between ego- vehicle and adjacent- following vehicle, the longitudinal acceleration have significant differences by comparing the operating parameters of the three kinds data. Taking ego-vehicle velocity, velocity difference and distance between ego-vehicle and adjacentfollowing vehicle, the longitudinal acceleration as input variables, and the kinds of lane change influence as output variables, the safety prediction model of lane changing is established by SVM. The forecasting result shows that the prediction accuracy of the dangerous lane changing behavior can reach 91.1%, and the model has good prediction effect.