目的采用死亡数和寿命损失年(YLL)两种疾病负担指标,定量评估大气二氧化氮(NO_2)对人群健康效应的影响。方法收集天津市六个城区2001年1月1日至2010年12月31日的每日大气NO_2和死因监测数据,并计算每日YLL值,采用广义相加模型分别建立大气NO_2对暴露人群每日死亡及每日YLL影响的暴露反应关系,最后采用Meta分析方法对六城区的结果进行合并。结果除和平区外,天津市其他5个城区大气NO_2均可导致暴露人群非意外死亡数和YLL值的增加。天津市城区大气NO_2日均浓度(lag0~1)每升高10μg/m~3,可分别导致暴露人群每日死亡和每日YLL值增加0.67%(95%CI:0.40%~0.93%)和1.62(95%CI:0.69~2.54)人年。结论天津市城区大气NO_2可导致暴露人群死亡和YLL的增加,但不同的城区之间存在一定的差异。
Objective Using death counts and years of life lost as the surrogate of burden of disease to assess the health effects of NO_2. Methods Surveillance data on daily NO_2, meteorology and the cause of death were collected from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2010 in six districts of Tianjin and YLL were calculated. Generalized additive model was used to investigate the associations of NO_2 on deaths and YLL of non-accidental death, then meta-analysis was used to merge the results. Results Statistical significant positive associtions of NO_2 on deaths and YLL were observed in most districts, except Heping district. 10μg/m~3 increase of total NO_2 at lag0-1 were associated with increases of 0.67%(95% CI:0.40%-0.93%) in excess risk of death and 1.62(95%CI:0.69-2.54) person years in YLL. Conclusion The exposure to NO_2 is associated with the increase of deaths and YLL of non-accidental death, and the associations present differences among different districts.