中文摘要：

制定基于分时电价的需求响应激励策略需要充分掌握居民用户的用电特性。针对此问题,该文建立了基于蒙特卡洛方法的需求响应行为影响因素评估模型,基于此模型分析居民用户用电数据和调查问卷,得到了居民用户需求响应行为的主要影响因素。基于主成分分析和逐步线性回归建立了用电设备负荷曲线提取算法,剥离了与需求响应行为有较强相关性用电设备负荷曲线,提取了居民用户对分时电价机制的响应特性。与测量数据的对比表明,负荷曲线提取算法是准确和有效的。基于负荷曲线提取算法分析分时电价机制下负荷曲线的演变特性,可为峰时电价制定、需求响应等提供有效的数据支撑。

英文摘要：

Formulation of time-of-use（TOU） price based incentive mechanism for demand response needs to fully grasp feature of residential electricity consumption. To solve this problem, an influence evaluation model based on Monte Carlo method is proposed to identify main influencing factors of resident demand response behavior through analyzing residential electricity consumption data and questionnaire. Based on principal component analysis（PCA） and stepwise linear regression, a load curve extraction method for electrical equipment is established. For electrical appliances with strong correlation with demand response behavior, their load curves are extracted to illustrate response characteristics of residents to TOU tariffs. Accuracy and effectiveness of load curve extraction is validated through comparison with measured data. Based on load curve extraction, analysis of load curve features evolved with implementation of TOU tariffs may provide support for setting electricity price of peak load and other demand response policies.