中文摘要：

为探讨大变形较准确的预测方法，在综合分析大变形形成条件的基础上，归纳出岩性条件、应力条件和围岩条件3个方面、8个指标作为影响大变形发生的主要因素。在此基础上，采用模糊综合评判和层次分析相结合的方法，提出了一类新的大变形综合分级预测方法。该方法较全面地考虑了大变形发生的多种影响因素，对各因素的重要性进行了层次分析评价，避免单一判据所带来的局限性。

英文摘要：

To discuss prediction methods of a large deformation and on the basis of analyzing and classifying the developing conditions of a large deformation, three conditions of the rock property, stress state of rock mass and surrounding rock and eight factors are chosen as the indexes of criterion for a large deformation prediction. A new integrated large deformation forecasting method is developed by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the analytic hierarchy process. The method considers many kinds of large deformation factors and gives the weight of every factors by the analytic hierarchy process. The method avoids the limitation of single criterion in forecasting a large deformation.