中文摘要：

针对城市轨道交通PPP融资成本高、投资回收期长、不确定性因素多等特点导致整个融资过程充满风险,且难以进行科学的评价,进而增加风险评价难度的问题,提出基于OWA与灰色聚类的城市轨道交通PPP融资风险评价方法。首先从全寿命周期角度构建城市轨道交通PPP融资风险指标体系。然后基于OWA算子对专家决策数据按照降序的方式重新排序,消除极值带来的不利影响,加权得出指标的权重值。最后考虑指标的灰色性、信息不完整性,构建灰色白化权函数实现指标信息的透明化,完成对PPP融资风险的聚类分析。应用构建的模型对郑州地铁1号线一期工程PPP融资风险进行评价,认为该地铁工程PPP融资风险等级高,应重点关注前期策划、社会资本、政策环境、设计质量、成本超支、建设质量、残值7个主要风险指标的控制,以期为该项目融资风险管理提供建议,并进一步丰富城市轨道交通PPP融资风险的评价方法。

英文摘要：

Public private partnership （PPP） financing mode ior urban rail transit is Iull Ot riSkS, 1. e. nigh nnancmgcost, long payback period, various uncertain factors and difficult to evaluate scientifically and accurately. As a result,the risk evaluation method based on the ordered weighted averaging（OWA） and grey clustering method is established.The risk indicator system of PPP financing mode for urban rail transit is established in terms of project life cycle; andthen the scores given by experts are reordered based on OWA operator so as to eliminate adverse effect induced byextreme values and gain the weight values of risk indicators. Finally, the grey whitening weight function is established inconsideration of grey and information unintegrity of risk indicators so as to realize transparency and complete clusteringanalysis of financing risk of PPP financing mode. The above-mentioned risk evaluation method is used to evaluate thefinancing risk of PPP mode in Zhengzhou Metro Line No. 1. The results show that the financing risk is of high-grade.Seven risk indicators, i. e. project planning, social capital, policy environment, design quality and cost overrun,construction quality and residual value, should be strictly controlled. The study results can provide references for riskevaluation of PPP financing mode for urban rail transit in the future.