中文摘要：

区域可持续发展的基础是生态环境的可持续，而如何科学评价土地利用变化环境效应是制定生态环境规划和研究土地利用可持续性的前提和基础。以南昌市为研究区，首先在GIS技术支持下选取文物古迹及森林公园、地质灾害、水环境、土壤综合质量4个因子，评价了南昌市土地综合生态敏感性；然后运用CLUE-S模型，模拟了南昌市2010-2020年间的土地利用空间格局；最后通过GIS叠加分析工具分别提取了2010年、2015年和2020年不同土地生态敏感区内的土地利用变化信息。结果表明：土地生态敏感性的等级差异性比较明显：轻度敏感区占40．83％，中、重度敏感区分别占21．68％和18．39％，微度敏感区占5．14％，极度敏感区占3．96％；到2020年耕地和其它用地处于减少趋势，园林地、建设用地和水域处于增加趋势，南昌县、进贤县和新建县的土地利用变化最为显著；各敏感区内地类变化速率不一，并针对性提出环境友好型土地利用对策。该研究将为南昌市土地可持续利用提供借鉴，也为区域土地环境影响的动态模拟提供新思路。

英文摘要：

Sustainable development is based on ecological sustainability ,and how to scientifically evaluate the environmental impact of land use is the foundation of the research on eco-environmental planning and land use sustainability .Taking Nanchang as the case study area ,this study first selected four factors such as heritage and forest parks,geological disasters,water environment,integrated soil quality under GIS support to evaluate comprehensive ecological sensitivity .Then the land use spatial patterns from 2010 to 2020 were simulated using CLUE-S model.Finally different land ecologically sensitive area of land use change information from the 2010, 2015 and 2020 was extracted by means of overlay analysis .The results showed that：there were obvious differ-ences in the levels of land ecological sensitivity：mild sensitive area accounted for 40.83%,moderate and severe sensitive areas accounted for 21.68%and 18.39%,slightly sensitive area accounted for 5.14%,extremely sen-sitive area accounted for 3.96%;by 2020 ,arable land and other land showed a decreasing trend ,and the gar-den land,construction land and water area showed an increasing trend ,Nanchang County,Jinxian County and Xinjian County had the most significant changes in land use;aiming at the different changing rates of land types in the sensitive areas ,this paper proposes targeted environment-friendly land use strategy .The study will provide a reference for sustainable land use of Nanchang ,but also provide new ideas for the regional dynamic simulation of the environmental impact .