中文摘要：

以鄱阳湖生态经济区核心城市---南昌市为例，根据空间模型CLUE-S模拟的未来土地利用情景，运用降雨径流模型（ SCS-CN）、综合径流系数法等，预测不同情景下土地利用变化对降雨径流氮磷污染物负荷的影响。结果表明，规划控制情景下N和P 的输出负荷分别为10227．27 t和1754．77 t，自然演替情景下分别为11170．07 t和2153．43 t，规划控制情景下降雨径流的污染物输出负荷小于自然演替情景。

英文摘要：

Nanchang,which is the core city of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone ,was selected as the research area.The rainfall runoff model （ SCS-CN） and synthetic runoff coefficient method were adopted to predict the effects of different scenarios of land-use on nitrogen and phosphorus pollution load in the rainfall runoff according to the land use scenarios simulation of the spatial model CLUE -S.The findings showed that the outputs of N and P load of the planning control scenario were10 227 2.7 tons and 1 754.77 tons,and those under the natural succession scenarios were 11 170.07 tons and 2 153.43 tons.The pollution output load of rainfall runoff under the planning control scenario was less than that under the natural succession scenario.