中文摘要：

为了实现长江三角洲港口群物流系统的协调发展，建立了系统动力学分析模型。通过分析上海和宁波两港口国际集装箱中转量、港口群水路集疏运比例的影响因素，建立长江三角洲港口群物流系统的因果关系图，通过系统模拟进行长江三角洲地区港口功能的合理定位、集疏运结构的优化和近洋航线中转港的选择。仿真结果表明：2010年上海港国际集装箱中转量将呈现增长趋势，上海港水路集疏运比例超过30％，长江三角洲地区应以上海港为集装箱枢纽港，优先发展国际中转业务，太仓港将具备长江三角洲近洋航线中转港的能力，太仓港可成为长江三角洲地区近洋航线主要中转港。

英文摘要：

In order to realize Yangtze Rive Delta（YRD）, a the coordination development of port group logistics system in dynamics model of the system was set up. The effect factors of international container transshipment volume and waterway transportation percentage at Shanghai Port and Ningbo Port were analyzed, the cause-effect relation graphs of the system were constructed, the system was simulated and the rational orientation of port function, the structural optimization of transportation system and transshipment port choice of near sea routes were studied. Simulation result shows that there will be an increase trend of international container transshipment volume in Shanghai Port in 2010, its waterway transportation percentage will be more than 30%, so it should be developed as a container hub port to expand international transshipment business; Taicang Port can be developed as a main transshipment port in near sea routes resulted from possessing the ability of container transshipment. 3 tabs, 10 figs, 17 refs.