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中文摘要：
近年来，我国燃油期货市场取得快速发展，但有关该市场波动特征和风险状况的研究却非常缺乏。以上海期货交易所燃油期货价格指数为例，分别在多头和空头两种头寸状况以及5种不同分位数水平下，运用条件覆盖检验、非条件覆盖检验等后验分析方法，实证对比了不同风险测度模型对VaR和ES两种不同风险指标估计的精度差异。研究结果表明：在我国燃油期货市场的风险测度估计中考虑国际燃油价格波动因素有助于获得更为精准的风险测度精度；在综合考虑了模型对价格变化动力学的刻画效果以及对极端风险的测度精度等因素后，FI—GARCHCST-SST模型是一个相对合理的风险测度模型选择。
英文摘要：
By taking four representative indices of Chinese fuel-oil futures market as sample, VaR predic ting is used for eight risk models. Furthermore, two robust backtesting methodologies, unconditional coy erage test and conditional coverage test, are introduced to estimate the accuracy for VaR predictions pro duced by different models. The main results show that adding international fuel-oil price volatility as ex planatory variable in typical models is helpful to improve risk estimation accuracy of Chinese fuel-oil fu tures market. In addition, FIGARCHcsT-SST is moderately good in overall consideration of description ef ficiency and estimation accuracy to extreme risk.
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