中文摘要：

在技术演化进程中的技术动荡期，多种不连续性技术同时涌现，但最终只有一种新技术能够成为主导范式，其他技术则自然消亡．以前的研究强调了外部环境和随机事件在技术消亡过程中的角色，如网格外部性、顾客选择、专利施加的障碍和政府管制，等等．然而，这只是对技术消亡的部分解释．本研究对此进行了拓展，将技术消亡归因于企业可控的战略因素，认为不可控的外部因素是企业战略选择的结果，企业可以对技术选择过程进行控制．

英文摘要：

During ferment era of technology evolution, many discontinuous technologies emerge out of which only one can become dominant paradigm and other technologies are rejected by market. Previous researches emphasize the role of external environment and random events in technological failure or success, such as network externality, customer choices of technologies, barriers posed by patents and government regulation. However, this is only a partial explanation of technology selection and rejection process. It extends that explanation by attributing technogical lockout to factors which are under the firm＇s control. It points out that external factors beyond the firm＇s control are the outcome of firm＇s strategic choice, so the firm can exert control over the process of technological selection.