中文摘要：

目的探讨北京市2008年1月1日—2009年12月31日大气PM10浓度的时空分布特征及其对人群脑血管病死亡的暴露-反应关系。方法采用克里格插值模型对研究期间北京市大气PM10日均浓度进行估计,采用时间序列的广义相加混合效应模型分析北京市大气PM10浓度对居民脑血管病死亡的暴露-反应关系。结果北京市2008—2009年大气PM10日均浓度为118.6μg/m^3,高于GB 3095—1996《环境空气质量标准》二级标准。研究期间北京市大气PM10浓度呈自北向南逐渐升高的空间分布规律。北京市大气PM10浓度每升高10μg/m3对脑血管病死亡的超额危险度为0.47%（95%CI：0.27%-0.66%）。引入多污染模型后大气PM10浓度对脑血管病死亡的超额危险度略有减小,但仍有统计学意义（P〈0.05）。结论采用克里格插值模型能够较为精确地估计北京大气PM10浓度的空间分布状况;北京市大气PM10浓度升高会增加人群脑血管病死亡的风险。

英文摘要：

Objective To explore the spatial-temporal characteristics of ambient particulate matter（PM10） mass concentration and formulate the exposure-response relationship between the ambient PM10 level and cerebrovascular disease mortality of population in Beijing. Methods Kriging interpolation model was used to estimate the spatial characteristics and concentration of ambient PM10 geographically around Beijing and optimized based on the results of cross-validation. Generalized additive mixed model（GAMM） was used to examine the association between PM10 and cerebrovascular disease mortality adjusting for the random effects of districts. Results The spatial distribution of ambient PM10 concentration presented to increase gradually from the northern to the southern in Beijing. There is the highest concentration of PM10 in southern Beijing. It was found that a 10μg/m^3 increase in the PM10 was associated with an increase of 0.47 %（0.27%-0.66%） in cerebrovascular disease mortality of the population in Beijing using the GAMM model. Conclusion Kriging interpolation models perform a good estimation of spatial distribution of the PM10 concentration across Beijing. Increased ambient PM10 concentration will increase the risk of cerebrovascular disease mortality.