中文摘要：

本文在生产者理性预期的假设下,运用ARDL模型对猪肉价格与其替代品价格、成本价格等变量的长期协整均衡与短期波动关系进行了实证研究,结果表明：不超过3阶的ARDL模型能解释猪肉价格变动99.6%的信息,生产者存在短视和适应性调整的行为。从提高养殖规模、稳定替代品供给和稳定粮食成本价格方面提出了相关对策建议。

英文摘要：

Under rational expectations, we use ARDL model studying the long-term co-integration of the relevant price, the results show that： No more than 3 order ARDL model can explain 99.6% of the information of the pork price; the producers are short-sighted and adaptive. There is co-integration among the pork price and the related variables. Policy implications are summarized from improving farming scale, stabilizing the supply of substitution and stabilizing the price of food.