中文摘要：

以新一轮国土资源大调查“柴达木盆地地下水资源及其环境问题调查评价”项目为依托，围绕时序预测建模软件（Time Series Forecast V1．0）的研发与应用，按照现代预测学理论对柴达木盆地的水文、气象等多因子时序量进行了百年预测。针对多因子综合评价模型提出并采用了先进可行的“主成分”分析法，建立了“特征向量”与“综合指标”的对等关系，从而避免了以往诸多评价模型中人为因素的干扰，提高了预测结果的可信度。

英文摘要：

Depending on the Land Resource Survey project ＂Ground Water Resources and Environment Problems Surveying and Evaluation in Chaidamu Basin＂, focus on the development and application of Time Series forecast V1.0, according to modem predict theory, it is forcasted the future 100 years of time series factors, such as hydrology and meteorological factors, in the Basin. Pointing at many factors evaluate model, it is put forward and adopted an advanced method of Principal Component Analysis;and established the reciprocity relationship between ＂Eigenvectors＂ and＂ Comprehensive index＂. Thus, the evaluate model can be avoided interference factor by men, anhanced the confidence of forecasting result.