中文摘要：

生猪生产波动是引发猪肉价格波动进而扰动CPI的重要因素。为了弥补现有实证研究中样本量和指标选取方面的诸多缺陷,基于2000-2012年省级面板数据,系统分析中国生猪生产波动的影响因素。结果表明：1猪肉价格对生产波动的影响最大,价格变动10%将引起生猪出栏量和猪肉产量同向波动1.5%左右;2玉米价格变动10%将引起出栏量和猪肉产量反向波动0.5%左右;3疫病对生产波动构成显著的负向冲击,当生猪重大疫病死亡率达到1‰,出栏量将负向波动3%;4养殖规模化水平具有稳定波动的作用,而补贴政策并无明显的波动稳定作用;5前期猪肉价格持续下跌、饲料成本上涨和大范围疫病爆发对2007年全国生猪出栏量大幅度下挫的贡献率分别为47.4%、14.9%和8.3%,在疫情严重的地区,疫病的贡献率高达27.3%。

英文摘要：

Fluctuation of pig production is an important factor provoking pork price fluctuation and CPI disturbance. In order to remedy defects on sample size and indicator selection in the existing empirical studies, this paper systematically analyzed the factors affecting Chinese pig production fluctuations on the basis of provincial panel data from 2000 to 2012. The results indicated that： firstly, pork price variation was the most significant factor influencing pig production fluctuation. A ten percent change in pork price may lead to a 1.5% pig production fluctuation in the same direction. Secondly, a 10% of corn price change may lead to pork production change by about 0.5% reversely. Thirdly, pig diseases and epidemics had a significant negative impact on production fluctuation. When major epidemic caused death rate reached one thousandth, live pig output would decrease by 3%. Fourthly, pig production intensification could stabilize production fluctuation, whereas subsidy policies had no significant stabilizing impact on fluctuation. Lastly, continuous decrease of pork prices, increase of feed costs, and large-scale outbreaks of epidemics could explain 47.4%, 14.9%, and 8.3% of the extreme decline of pig production in 2007 respectively. The contribution of the pig diseases and epidemics to production fluctuation was up to 27.3% in the epidemic-hit areas.