中文摘要：

针对CA模型不能长期预测和Markov模型不能反映空间格局变化的不足，本文运用CA—Markov耦合模型，结合动态度模型、景观格局指数及PCA法，定量揭示宁镇扬丘陵区镇江市的土地利用景观格局演变特征、驱动机制及变化趋势，为区域土地利用规划及调整提供参考。结果表明：镇江市土地利用景观格局时空演变愈加复杂；人口增长、经济发展、城镇化及农业技术进步是土地利用景观格局演变的主要驱动力；到2030年镇江市城区周边建设用地将增加25．58％，而耕地、林地等景观类型将不断锐减。

英文摘要：

Aiming at the problem that CA model could not long-term predict and Markov model could not reflect the spatial pattern change, the paper used CA-Markov coupled mode, combined with the land- scape pattern index, dynamic model and PCA method to quantitatively reveal the landscape pattern evolu- tion characteristics and the trend of simulation in Zhenjiang city, so as to provide a reference for regional land use planning and adjustment. Results showed that. land use landscape time-space pattern evolution were increasingly complex; population growth, economic development, urbanization and agricultural technology progress together drove the landscape pattern evolution; by 2030, the construction land in ur- banization surrounding area would increase 25.58%, meanwhile, the cultivated land, other agricultural land and forest land landscape would respectively decrease.