电解铝是典型的能源密集型产业,能源效率也是影响我国电解铝企韭经济效率的关键因素。能源使用强度大和能源使用成本高都会直接影响到电解铝企业的可持续发展。近十年来,我国铝工业技术进步大大提高了电解铝能源的使用效率。但能源成本的增加,又大大的降低了电解铝能源的经济效率。与此同时。在这双重因素作用下.我国电解铝产能及能源消费总都在急剧上升。那么技术进步是否带来了电解铝能源的回弹效瘟呢?本文基于新古典经济增长理论.以二级镶嵌式CES函数为基础,按照索罗模型估算了我国电解铝企业1996—2011年的技术进步贡献率,并幂目用这一结果估算了我国电解铝能源消费的回弹效应。实证结果表明:技术进步是我国电解铝能源消费效率提高的主要因素,但阿时也引起了我国电解铝企业能源消费的回弹效应;其次,近几年电解铝用电价格的不断攀升。没有对我国电解铝无序状态起到很好的调控政策,需要采取更为有效的其他政策来规范电解铝行韭的发展,以优化我国电解铝资源配置。促进电解铝健康发展和减少能源浪费。
Aluminum is a typical energy-intensive industry, and the energy efficiency is a key factor that affects the economic efficiency of China' s electrolytic aluminum enterprises. High intensity and cost of energy consumption have a direct impaet on the sustainable development of aluminum enterprises. Over the past 10 years in China, on the one hand, the technological progress of China' s aluminum industry has greatly improved the efficiency of energy consumption of the aluminum industry, but on the other hand, the ever-increasing cost of energy has been reducing the economic efficiency of electrolytic aluminum. During the same period, the combination of the two factors has caused both the production capacity and the total amount of energy consumption of our country' s electrolytic aluminum to increase dramatically. So, can technological progress really bring about the rebound effect of energy consumption of aluminum? This paper, which is grounded on the theory of Neo-classical economic growth, has estimated the contribution rate of technological progress of China' s aluminum enterprises from 1996 to 2011 on the basis of the two-level Mosaic CES function according to the Solow model. Furthermore, by making use of the above results this paper also estimates the rebound effect of energy consumption of aluminum enterprises in China. The empirical results show that the technological progress is the main factor which has brought about both the increase of energy consumption efficiency and the rebound effect of energy consumption of our country' s aluminum enterprises. Besides, with the electricity price of electrolytic aluminum in China rising constantly in recent years, the absence of adjusting policies has caused the state of disorder of the aluminum industry. We need effective policies to regulate the aluminum industry so as to optimize the allocation of aluminum resources, to promote the healthy development of the aluminum industry and to minimize waste of resources and energy.