中文摘要：

在两阶段生产和订购模型中，将需求预测信息更新时刻作为决策变量，引入期权订货并赋予其数量柔性：第1阶段初，销售商根据初始需求预测，购买一定数量的期权；第2阶段初，销售商根据第1阶段收集到最新市场信息更新需求预测并调整期权购买量。销售季节开始时，销售商执行期权获取预订产品以满足市场需求。柔性期权契约包含3个参数：风险共担系数、期权购买价格和执行价格。柔性期权契约可以实现供应链协调，还能够使系统期望利润在其成员间任意分配；有效的风险共担系数能够使供应链系统及其成员的收益均实现帕累托改进；系统利润增量在其成员间的分配与各成员的风险偏好特点和谈判地位密切相关。

英文摘要：

This paper considers the moment of demand forecast updating as a decision variable in a two-stage production and ordering mode, and introduces flexible option contracts to coordinate the supply chain. At the beginning of the first stage, the retailer buys some options according to the ini- tial demand forecast. As soon as the second ordering time comes, the retailer adjusts the option quan- tities flexibly referring to updated demand forecast, which is based on the market information collect- ed in the first stage. The retailer exercises some options as soon as possible when the sales season comes, and gets products reserved to satisfy the market demand. The option contract includes three parameters, which are risk-pooling coefficient, option price and exercise price. The risk-pooling coef- ficient is the ratio of the option price and the cost of production reservation, and the exercise price is a linear combination of the retail price, unit shortage cost, and unit salvage value. The option contract can coordinate the supply chain, and the system profit can be allocated arbitrarily between the two members. Given an efficient risk-pooling coefficient, the profits of the system and its two members can get Pareto improvements. The allocation of extra system profit closely depends on the magnitude of the member＇s risk aversion and its corresponding negotiation power.