中文摘要：

本文根据免疫学原理,从土地承载力（包括天然的、获得性的）和人口社会经济发展压力两个方面构建综合评价指标体系,将生物免疫学模型进行修正后与状态空间模型相结合,以海峡西岸城市群为例,对2006-2012年期间土地综合承载力时空分异特征及可持续发展状态进行综合测评。研究表明：在2006-2012年期间,承载力和压力二者的变化趋势夹角总体上由正转负,可持续发展趋势不太乐观;对2006年、2012年两个评价时点承载潜力对比分析发现,初步判断为超载的面积比重由72.9%扩大到90.3%,承载潜力内部差距正在逐渐拉近,承载潜力空间上均呈现＂总体沿海高于内陆,局部山区和发展节点较低＂的分布特征,与海峡西岸城市群的地势、开发密度的空间格局密切相关;未来应通过提高资源利用效率、改变发展方式等来调节承载力与压力之间的平衡,并重视引导各类社会经济要素在空间上的科学合理分布来促进城市群内部协调发展。

英文摘要：

This article draws on immunological principles, land carrying capacity（including natural and acquired） and population and socioeconomic development to establish an evaluation index system, and a combined state space and biological immunology model, to evaluate the spatial and temporal differentiation of land resource carrying and sustainable development. We found that from2006 to 2012, the angle between carrying capacity and pressure was positive to negative on the whole; the trend of sustainable development was less optimistic. Analysis of spatial distribution patterns of land carrying potential for urban agglomeration along the western coast of the Taiwan Strait in 2006 and 2012 found that the proportion of the area with preliminary overload expanded from 72.9% to 90.3%; however, the potential for an internal gap gradually narrowed. The carrying potential of space showed that coastal lands are higher than inlands, the area of local mountains and nodes of development are lower, and that the distribution is closely related to the spatial pattern of topography and development density of the urban agglomeration of the western coast of the Taiwan Strait. In the future the balance between carrying capacity and pressure should be regulated by improving resource utilization efficiency, changing the development approach, and promoting inner parts of urban agglomeration to develop by putting emphasis on guiding various social and economic factors within a reasonable spatial distribution.