在大规模定制(Mass Customization)企业多项目进度预测进行分析,并对项目进度预测方法进行比较的基础上,指出适合MC企业多项目进度预测的灰色动态预测方法。通过对GM(1.1)动态预测模型构建中的两个方面进行改进,使改进后的模型预测精确度更高,适用范围更广。然后根据MC企业多项目进度的实例应用及模型检验,对传统模型与改进后的模型进行比较,最后得出结论。
Multi-project schedule forecasting of mass customization (MC) enterprises were analyzed and project schedule forecasting methods were compared. Grey dynamic forecasting method was pointed out, which is suitable for multi-project schedule forecasting of MC enterprises on the basis. For higher forecast accuracy and wider application, two aspects were improved in the structure of GM ( 1.1 ) dynamic forecasting method. Then according to example of MC enterprise' s multi-project schedule application and model testing, conclusion is given by the comparison between traditional model and improved model.