中文摘要：

当有效早屏蔽的策略能救众多的命时，卵巢的癌症是在许多区域的最致命的女生殖器的恶意的肿瘤之一。CA125 和 HE4 是有效以及在卵巢的癌症的最近的屏蔽研究最通常使用的验证的肿瘤标记。在这篇论文，作者用最大的可能性的方法根据纵的 CA125 和 HE4 层次和估计的参数构造一个变化点和混合模型，现出症状之前的潜的持续时间假定审查权利，它是更适应的并且与涨由的贝叶斯的途径相比产出可比较的结果溜冰。评估者的一致性被证明。作者也运用由计算分别地测试真发生时间的癌症和假设的风险的顺序的屏蔽的 5 年的模拟。结果证明那诊断在早察觉更好基于假设测试表现。

英文摘要：

Ovarian cancer is one of the most deadly female genital malignant tumors in many regions while an effective early screening strategy can save numerous lives. CA125 and HE4 are tumor markers validated efficacious as well as most commonly used in recent screening research of ovarian cancer. In this paper, the authors construct a change-point and mixture model on the basis of longitudinal CA125 and HE4 levels and estimated parameters using maximum likelihood method with the preclinical duration assumed right-censored, which is more adaptive and yields comparable results in comparison to the Bayesian approach raised by Skates. Consistency of estimators is proved. The authors also run a 5-year simulation of sequential screening by calculating the risk of cancer and hypothesis testing the true incidence time respectively. Results show that diagnosis based on hypothesis test performs better in early detection.