改革开放以来,人民币汇率经历了许许多多制度变迁。对人民币汇率产生较大影响和冲击的事件有1989年汇率调整、1994年汇率体制并轨、2005年实行有管理的浮动汇率制度,它们极有可能引起人民币汇率发生结构变化。本文对人民币汇率的外生结构变化问题进行了深入的研究,结果发现:人民币汇率发生了结构变化,在时间段1994年1月-2005年7月趋势平稳,其他时间段为带有结构断点的单位根过程,不考虑结构突变可能会带来“伪协整”问题。实行有管理的浮动汇率制度,对我国的汇率产生了长久的影响,人民币一直保持了稳定发展的态势。
Since reform and opening up, the RMB exchange rate system has undergone many changes. The events which have great influence and impact on RMB exchange rate including: adjust the exchange rate in 1989, merge exchange rate system in 1994, implement a managed floating exchange rate system in 2005. They most likely cause the occurrence of structural changes in the RMB exchange rate. This paper finds that the structure of the RMB exchange rate changes have taken place. Implementing a managed floating exchange rate system has had a lasting impact on China's exchange rate.