“一带一路”倡议为沿途各国钢铁贸易带来了契机,本文综合运用复杂网络的分析方法对2005-2014年“一带一路”沿线65个国家的钢铁贸易格局及演变规律进行了研究,探讨了国家间竞争与依赖关系,以期促进中国的钢铁贸易。研究结果表明:“一带一路”沿线国家的钢铁贸易呈多元化格局,且以中国、俄罗斯、印度、土耳其、乌克兰为贸易核心。除2008年经济危机,在2012年以前整体“一带一路”钢铁市场贸易额呈上升趋势,2012年之后5大核心国中只有中国钢铁出口保持着高速持续增长,成为最大的钢铁出口国。地缘相近的国家普遍具有紧密的贸易关系,而中国钢铁出口的主要市场为南亚及东南亚地区。中东地区钢铁市场竞争激烈,钢铁需求量巨大,是中国需要大力开拓的国际市场。
The Belt and Road Initiatives strategy presents opportunities of steel trading for countries along the Belt and Road. In order to promote China's iron and steel trade, this paper analyzesthe structure and evolution trendof 65 countries' steel trading network along the Belt and Road in 2005-2014, with the complex network methods, and discusses the national competition and dependence. Our research results show that thestructure of steel trading is diversified in the Belt and Road with China, Russia, India, Turkey and Ukraine as the core of trade. Apart from the influence of 2008 economic crisis, the overall steel market before 2012 was an upward trend. After 2012, only China's steel exports remained at a high speed and sustained growth in the five core countries and became the largest exporter of iron and steel. Furthermore, the countries who adjoin geographically witheach other share a closer relationship in steel trading business, and the main export destinationsof China's steel trade is Southeast Asia and South West Asian countries. The Middle East,whose steel market is highly competitive, and steel demand is huge, is the international market that our country needs to develop vigorously.