中文摘要：

2007年国。际干散货运输市场呈现出一片火爆的景象，波罗的海干散货运价指数比去年上升了1倍还多。海运市场如此火爆的原因是什么呢？本文首先从传统海运经济学角度，找出影响运价指数的可能因素，用计量经济学方法对影响因素进行分析。在发现上述影响因素无法通过检验之后，通过结合FFA市场，找出影响近年来海运运价的真正原因，并用EVIEWS软件进行拟合分析。参数估计具备较好回归拟合度和预测精度，能够很好地解释近年来海运市场异常的原因。

英文摘要：

In 2007, the International dry-bulk shipping market was very prosperous. The average of BDI in the whole year was more than 100% higher than last year. What is the cause of soaring of BDI in 2007？ From the traditional maritime economics perspective, this paper firstly identifies the possible impact of BDI, using econometric methods to analyze the influencing factors. After realizing that the above factors can not pass the test, through an analysis of FFA market, we find out the real cause of BDI, and use the EVIEWS to fit and analyze the data. The Parameter estimations are of desirable goodness-of-fit and prediction acuracy, and can also perfectly explain the reason of abnormality of dry-bulk shipping market in 2007.