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中文摘要：
结合对近50年塔里木河源流区气象、水文资料的分析，探讨了过去半个世纪塔里木河源流区气候变化及其对河川径流的影响。研究结果显示，在过去50年里，塔里木河三源流径流流量总体呈现增加的趋势，期间有波动过程；对影响径流变化的气温、降水和蒸发等因子分析发现，降水量变化对塔里木河径流量变化影响最为显著，而温度的升高，加速了山区冰雪资源的消融，加大了冰雪融水对径流量的补给，但同时导致蒸发量增大，增加了地表淡水资源的消耗，对山区来水量的增大起到一定的削弱作用。
英文摘要：
The influences of climate change on runoff processes are of the main topics of the climate change researches in the world. The climate change results in the change in water circulation and the spatio -temporal redistribution of water resources. Based on the meteorology and hydrology data near 50 years of the water resources in the headwaters of the Tarim River, the paper discusses the climatic change and its influence of the change on the water resources in the headwaters of the Tarim River in past half century. The results show that in past 50 years the runoff has the increase tendency in general at the three sources in the headwaters of the Tarim River, and there is an undulation process in this period. The change of precipitation is the most remarkable factor to influence the runoff change of the Tarim River by analyzing the temperature, precipitation and evaporation. But the temperature rising has accelerated the ablation of snow and ice resources in mountainous area. Thus it enlarges the water supplies to runoff amount. But simultaneously it causes the transpiration to increase, adds consumption of the surface fresh water resources, which can weaken the increase of water which comes from the mountainous areas.
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