运用基于向量自回归(VAR)的静态协整和动态检验方法,采用中国1998年1月至2006年6月的月度数据,实证检验了我国货币政篡传导的实际利率渠道。检验结果支持传导渠道中各变量之间长期稳定的均衡关系,不过渠道中各中介变量对最终产出的短期效应不够显著。货币政策通过货币供给能有效传导至货币市场,但后续传导受到阻滞。脉冲响应函数和方差分解在支持利率渠道传导时滞效应存在的同时,也表明两条实际利率渠道所发挥的作用日渐显著.
Based on monthly data from Jan 1998 to Jun 2006, we empirically analyzed the real interest rate channel of monetary transmission in China with cointegration and dynamic methods. Our tests support a stable long - term relationship among these variables in the channel, though a short - term effect of these variables on the final output is not so apparent. The monetary policy can be transmitted effectively to the money market, yet the transmission to the following variables is to some extent blocked. With impulse response and variance decomposition testes we not only find time lags in the channel but also proved an increasingly evident interest rate channel.