中文摘要：

光伏发电容量可信度是衡量光伏发电对电力系统可靠性贡献的重要标准。提出一种计及光伏出力与负荷相关性的光伏发电容量可信度的计算方法。首先，根据光伏发电昼夜特性，建立白天、黑夜分时段出力模型；其次，采用离散联合概率分布构造刻画光伏出力与电网负荷相关特性的联合多状态模型；最后，利用非序贯蒙特卡洛模拟方法计算得到系统可靠性指标和光伏发电容量可信度。基于等LOLE和等LOEE准则，计算了RBTS系统增加光伏电站后的光伏发电容量可信度，结果表明所提出方法的正确性和实用性。

英文摘要：

Photovoltaic power generation （PPG） capacity credit is an important index for evaluating the contributions ofphotovoltaic power on system reliability. A novel calculation method for PPG capacity credit is presented considering the correlation between output of photovoltaic power and load. The method firstly presents a time-interval based output model of PPG for day-mode and night-mode, then constructs a joint multi-state model, which can be used to characterize the correlation between the output of PPG and load, using a discrete joint probability distribution, and finally calculates the system reliability indices and capacity credit of PPG using the non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method. Based on equivalent LOLE and LOEE criterion, the capacity credit of the RBTS test system containing PPG is analyzed. The results indicate the validity and practicability of the proposed model.