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决策与判断中的分解效应
  • ISSN号:1671-6981
  • 期刊名称:《心理科学》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]
  • 作者机构:[1]中国科学院心理研究所行为科学重点实验室,北京100101, [2]中国科学院大学人文学院,北京100049, [3]山东日照职业技术学院,日照276826
  • 相关基金:本研究得到国家自然科学基金委项目(71001098)和中科院重点项目(KJZD-EW-L04)的资助.
中文摘要:

分解效应是人类主观判断中的一种较稳固的行为偏差,并且判断结果会对随后的决策产生重要影响,因此,对该领域研究成果的全面梳理具有重要的理论意义和实际价值。本文主要介绍了支持理论中的分解效应,总结梳理了概率判断与时间判断中的分解效应研究,综述了其他社会判断中的分解效应研究成果,展望了决策与判断中的分解效应的未来研究方向。通过上述内容的论述,以期为该领域研究提供新的思路,推动国内相关领域研究的发展。

英文摘要:

In our daily life, both layman and experts are often called to evaluate the probability of uncertain events and the time duration of some tasks or projects, such as who is the winner in the World Cup and how long it will take to finish this new project. Such assessments and judgments play an very substantial role in decision making. Psychologists, economists and researchers in other fields have taken deep exploration in human subjective judgment. One effect that has been studied in great detail across a variety of domains is the unpacking effect, which refers to the phenomenon that the total value assigned to a hypothesis is often greater if the hypothesis is decomposed into individual parts which are then evaluated separately. The summation of these individual parts yields a higher valuation than if the hypothesis had been evaluated as a whole.In the present paper, we comprehensively summarized research on the unpacking effect over 20 years. First we introduced the origin of the unpacking effect. Tversky and Koehler put up with the unpacking effect in the Support Theory for the first time in 1994 and they regarded it as the subadditivity in probability judgment. For example, the sum of subjective probabilities for a person dying from “heart disease, cancer, or other natural causes” tends to be judged greater than the subjective probability for the same person dying simply from ‘‘natural causes”. A lot of research demonstrated that the unpacking effect is not only happened in evaluation of lay people but also founded in experts’ judgments. Although Rottenstreich and Tversky (1997) highlighted that probability judgments are generally subadditive rather than superadditive and examples of superadditivity represent the exception rather than the rule of probability judgment, other researchers revealed that superadditivity is also widespread in probability judgment. Next we summarized the unpacking effect in probability judgment. Researchers showed that the unpacking effect is robust, not culturally inf

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期刊信息
  • 《心理科学》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中国科学技术学会
  • 主办单位:中国心理学会
  • 主编:李其维
  • 地址:上海市中山北路3663号
  • 邮编:200062
  • 邮箱:xinlikexue@vip.163.com
  • 电话:021-62232236
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1671-6981
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:31-1582/B
  • 邮发代号:4-317
  • 获奖情况:
  • 为国务院学位办审定为核心期刊
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 中国中国人文社科核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国社科基金资助期刊,中国国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库,中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:46796