分解效应是人类主观判断中的一种较稳固的行为偏差,并且判断结果会对随后的决策产生重要影响,因此,对该领域研究成果的全面梳理具有重要的理论意义和实际价值。本文主要介绍了支持理论中的分解效应,总结梳理了概率判断与时间判断中的分解效应研究,综述了其他社会判断中的分解效应研究成果,展望了决策与判断中的分解效应的未来研究方向。通过上述内容的论述,以期为该领域研究提供新的思路,推动国内相关领域研究的发展。
In our daily life, both layman and experts are often called to evaluate the probability of uncertain events and the time duration of some tasks or projects, such as who is the winner in the World Cup and how long it will take to finish this new project. Such assessments and judgments play an very substantial role in decision making. Psychologists, economists and researchers in other fields have taken deep exploration in human subjective judgment. One effect that has been studied in great detail across a variety of domains is the unpacking effect, which refers to the phenomenon that the total value assigned to a hypothesis is often greater if the hypothesis is decomposed into individual parts which are then evaluated separately. The summation of these individual parts yields a higher valuation than if the hypothesis had been evaluated as a whole.In the present paper, we comprehensively summarized research on the unpacking effect over 20 years. First we introduced the origin of the unpacking effect. Tversky and Koehler put up with the unpacking effect in the Support Theory for the first time in 1994 and they regarded it as the subadditivity in probability judgment. For example, the sum of subjective probabilities for a person dying from “heart disease, cancer, or other natural causes” tends to be judged greater than the subjective probability for the same person dying simply from ‘‘natural causes”. A lot of research demonstrated that the unpacking effect is not only happened in evaluation of lay people but also founded in experts’ judgments. Although Rottenstreich and Tversky (1997) highlighted that probability judgments are generally subadditive rather than superadditive and examples of superadditivity represent the exception rather than the rule of probability judgment, other researchers revealed that superadditivity is also widespread in probability judgment. Next we summarized the unpacking effect in probability judgment. Researchers showed that the unpacking effect is robust, not culturally inf