生态足迹是一种简单有效衡量区域可持续发展能力的量化指标。基于生态足迹理论和方法,分析了重庆市2003—2012年的人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力、万元GDP生态足迹,探讨了三者的动态特征及其变化趋势。结果表明:12003—2012年重庆市的人均生态足迹由1.3444hm^2增加到2.0712hm^2,人均生态承载力由1.0138hm^2增加到1.2439hm^2,生态赤字持续扩大;2万元GDP生态足迹由1.6400hm^2下降到0.6000hm^2,资源利用效率显著提高;3重庆市的生态足迹结构不合理,资源供需矛盾比较突出。在此基础上,对重庆市2014—2020年人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力进行了趋势预测分析。结果显示,在不改变当前诸因素的前提下,重庆市的生态足迹还将持续增加,而人均生态承载力将会小幅提升,但仍会导致人均生态赤字持续扩大的趋势。最后从创新技术、改变生产和生活模式、淘汰落后产能、平衡区域发展和强化生态意识等方面提出了减少生态赤字的措施,对重庆市山地资源的可持续利用、三峡库区生态保护等政策的正确制定提供了理论指导和实证支持,同时也具有强化社会树立生态赤字危机意识的现实意义。
The ecological footprint was a kind of quantitative indicator which could simply and effectively measure the regional sustainable devel- opment ability. Based on the theory and method of ecological footprint, this paper analyzed the per capita ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, as well as the ecological footprint of ten thousand Yuan GDP of Chongqing from 2003 to 2012, and discussed the dynamic characteristics of the three and the change trend of the ecological deficit. The results showed that during the period between 2003 to 2012, the per capita ecological footprint of Chongqing increased from 1. 3444hm^2 to 2.0712hm^2 , per capita ecological carrying capacity increased from 1. 0138hm^2 to 1.2439hm^2 , the ecological deficit was expanding continually, the ecological footprint of ten thousand Yuan GDP decreased from 1.64hm^2 to 0. 60hm^2 , the utilization efficiency of resources increased significantly, the structure of the ecological footprint of Chongqing was unreasonable, and the contradiction between supply and demand of resources was prominent. On this basis, tendency of per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity were predicted in Chongqing municipality city from 2014 to 2020. Under the premise of not changing all the current factors, the results indicated that per capita ecological footprint would further climb up. However, per capita ecological carrying capacity would move up slightly, which could still bring a gradually increasing trend of the ecological deficit in future in Chongqing. Finally, some measures of reducing the ecological deficit were put forward in terms of innovating technology, changing the production pattern and life style, closing down outdated production facilities, balancing regional development and strengthening eco - consciousness. This paper provided the theoretical guidance and empirical support for accurately making policy of mountain resource sustainable utilization and ecological protection of Three Gorges Reservoir in Chongqing