中文摘要：

研究目的：分析农户农村土地退出风险认知的影响因素。研究方法：基于有序Probit回归模型,结合重庆市实地调查数据,进行定量分析。研究结果：（1）从宅基地退出风险认知来看,户主年龄、家庭主要成员是否定居城镇、退地后生活质量预期、退地政策的信任程度对农户宅基地退出风险认知有显著负向影响;退地后失去稳定住所、退地后无法获得足额补偿对农户宅基地退出风险认知有显著正向影响。（2）从承包地退出风险认知来看,户主年龄、家庭有无稳定非农收入、家庭主要成员是否参加新农保、退地后生活质量预期、退地政策的信任程度对农户承包地退出风险认知有显著负向影响,而退地后无法稳定就业影响生计、退地后无法获取养老及医疗费用、退地后无法获得足额补偿对农户承包地退出风险认知有显著正向影响。（3）影响农户宅基地退出风险认知的因素少于影响农户承包地退出风险认知及规避能力的因素,说明农户对于承包地退出较宅基地退出存在更多顾虑,农户也更倾向退出宅基地。（4）同一因素也可能存在对农户宅基地、承包地退出风险认知不同的影响,这主要由宅基地与承包地所承载的保障功能差异决定的。研究结论：完善不同区域的住房保障体系,拓展农民非农就业渠道,加快城乡社保及公共服务一体化进程是降低农户土地退出风险的重要途径。

英文摘要：

The purposes of this paper are to analyze the risk perception of farmers on returning rural collective-owned land and also analyze the impact factors. The method is to apply the Ordered Probit Model based on the data set surveyed in Chongqing. The results show that： 1） regarding the rural residential land, factors including the age of the head of households, whether major family members are settled in city, the expectation of life quality after returning land, trust on the land-returning policies have significantly negative impacts on the risk perception of farmers. Factors including losing stable residence after returning lands, unable to have enough compensation after returning lands have significantly positive impacts on the risk perception of farmers. 2） Regarding the farmland use rights, factors including the age of the head of households, whether the family has a stable non-farm income, whether major family members have participated in the new rural social pension insurance system, the expectation of life quality after returning lands, and the trust on the land-returning policy have significantly negative impacts on the risk perception of farmers. Factors including unable to have stable employment for livelihood after returning land, unable to have expenditure for pension and medical treatment after returning land, unable to have enough compensation after returning land have significantly positive effect on the risk perception of farmers. 3） Factors that impact the risk perception of farmers on returning residential land are less than that of return farmland use rights. This means that farmers pay more attention to farmland use rights than residential land. 4） The same factor may have different impacts on the risk perception of farmers regarding residential and farmland use rights, which are determined by the differences of safeguard function between the two types of land. The paper concludes that some measures such as perfecting housing safeguard system in different regions, expanding farmers＇