中文摘要：

文章基于“五普”、“六普”、2005年和2015年全国1％人口抽样调查数据，从人口流出的角度分析中部各省人口流出的变动特征，结果发现21世纪以来中部总体流出人口规模增速虽有上升，但相对全国有所放缓，中部各省中流出人口规模大的省份有流出人口规模增速放缓的趋势，而规模小的省份有增速加快的趋势，中部省际流出人口的流向选择具有明显的区域聚集效应，流向分布以湖南、安徽和江西最为集中，以山西、河南最为分散。基于2002～2012年面板数据建立中部省际人口流出对流出地经济影响的变系数面板数据模型，发现中部省际人口流出对中部地区总体经济增长具有徽弱负向影响；中部省际人口流出不利于缩小中部与东部地区的经济差距；此外，中部省际人口流出在一定程度上阻碍了中部地区产业结构的转型和升级，人口流出总体上降低了第三产业GDP产值比重，相对增加第一和第二产业GDP产值比重。中部地区经济水平的相对落后导致中部地区大规模的人口流出，而人口流出又进一步阻碍了中部地区的经济发展。因此，地方政府有必要加强对中部经济发展的重视，缓解中部大量人才外流现象，同时中部人口流出对各省的影响不一，政策制定还需因地制宜。

英文摘要：

From the perspective of out-migration, this paper analyses the changing characteristics of inter- provincial population outflow in the central region of China by using data of the fifth and sixth National Pop- ulation Census, the 2005 and 2015 national 1% population sample survey. The result shows that out-migra- tion scale of central China has been increasing since 21st century, but when compared with the nation it has slowed down. Provinces in central China with large scale of outmigration have a tendency to slow down, while the opposite ones have a tendency to speed on. The out-migration distribution is of obvious conver- gence, as province Hunan, Anhui and Jiangxi are the most concentrated, while Shanxi and Henan are the most dispersed. Based on the panel data from 2002 to 2012, this paper builds variable coefficient panel model of the impacts of interprovincial out-migration in central China. The result shows that it has a slight negative impact on the overall economic growth of central China and it is not good for narrowing the econom- ic gap between the central and the east region of China. In addition, population outflow has hindered the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in central China. Out-migration generally reduces the GDP proportion of the tertiary industry, while relatively increases the GDP proportion of the first and sec- ond industry. The relatively low economic condition in central China leads to a large scale of out-migration, while out-migration causes a further hindrance to the development of central China. So this paper argues that the local government should attach more importance to the economic development in central China, thus to relieve the phenomenon of brain drain. As the influence of out-migration to each province of central China is different, policy making needs to adapt to local conditions.