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中文摘要：
针对当前煤层底板突水预测存在的问题,在突水概率指数法预测预报系统的基础上,用matlab开发出了一套新型煤层底板突水预测系统软件。通过对地质、水文地质等信息数据进行分析处理,从而确定导致煤层底板突水的主控因素及次级影响因素,并分别赋予其相应的权重值,将各因素在底板突水中所起的作用定量化。特别是对于不同矿区不同控制因素的影响,其相应权重值的大小可以灵活改变。建立赋权求和数学模型,绘制出各个主要控制因素的专题图,并根据各个主要控制因素的不同权重值,叠合绘制出底板突水概率指数法突水分区图。同时计算出煤层底板突水概率指数。将系统软件应用于工程实际,预测效果与实际情况相吻合。
英文摘要：
The safe mining of coal resources in China has been seriously affected by water inrush from seam floor. In order to solve the problem in forecasting water inrush from coal seam floor, in the paper a new software system forecasting of water inrush from seam floor is developed in MATLAB on the basis of the forecast system of water inrush probability indexes. By means of analyzing and processing lots of data such as geology, hydrogeology and so on, major controlling factors and secondary factors leading to water inrush from coal seam floor are determined and then the corresponding weights are given to make the factors of water inrush quantified, and every weight can change flexibly in different mine areas and different controlling factors. Thematic map of each major factor is drawn and empowerment summation mathematical model is established. According to the different weights of the major factors, the water inrush subarea chart of probability index is drawn and the probability indexes of water in- rush are calculated. After the system being applied in engineering practice, it proves that the predicted result is consistent with the actual situation.
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