中文摘要：

长距离隧洞TBM施工面临众多风险,尤其是地质条件的不确定性是影响工程进度的重要因素。提出柔性作业网络的表达方式,建立TBM施工过程柔性循环网络模型,突破传统PERT以及现有研究只考虑工序持续时间不确定性的限制,可描述在应对施工风险的调整措施下,工序逻辑关系调整和工序增删的不确定性,故可全面反映施工过程中的工序持续时间柔性、顺序柔性和操作柔性。同时,采用Markov过程和专家调查法估计隧洞沿程不同岩性段下地质风险因素（如膨胀岩、突水）的发生概率,并提出TBM施工柔性循环网络仿真分析流程。工程实例研究表明,该方法不仅可计算隧洞TBM施工工期及其不确定性,而且比先前方法更深入地分析地质风险对进度的影响程度,可为制定工程风险防范方案和进度计划提供依据。

英文摘要：

Many risks,especially geologic risks,greatly impact the project schedule of TBM construction.PERT and other current methods focus on the uncertainty of activity durations,while neglect the relationship and changes of activities resulted from risk occurrence.In order to describe the flexibility of TBM construction process,flexible operation network is presented,and the flexible cyclic operation network model of TBM tunneling is established.In addition,the probabilities of geologic risk,such as swelling rock risk and water inrush risk,are estimated by geologic prediction using Markov process and Delphi method.The process of flexible cyclic operation network simulation is introduced.An example shows that the proposed method can not only calculate the project completion and its probability,but also discuss the risk influence on the project schedule in more details than previous methods.The simulation results can provide effective support on making risk prevention and scheduling of the project.