银行风险承担会影响房地产信贷政策对房价的调控效果。利用中国2005-2012年的省际数据构建动态面板模型发现,房地产信贷政策对房价的调控效果在2009年出现结构性增强。进一步研究证实,银行风险承担与房地产信贷政策间存在协同或拮抗作用。2009年后,银行风险承担与房地产信贷政策表现出明显的拮抗作用,这是中国房地产限贷政策调控低效的重要原因。只有在稳健的货币政策环境下,以调节需求为主的房地产信贷政策才能够较好地抑制房价过快上涨。
Risk-taking channel of banks significantly affect the real estate credit regulating the price of real estate. Employing data of 29 provinces in China from 2005 to 2012,we construct a dynamic panel data model to find that the impact of real estate credit policy on the price of real estate has a structural enhancement in 2009. Confirmed by further studies,there exits collaboration and antagonism effects between Risk- taking of banks and real estate credit policy. Antagonism effects show actively since 2009,which might be an important reason for the poor performance of real estate credit contraction policy after 2009 in China. Under the prudent monetary policy in China,the demand-based real estate credit policy is able to prevent the price of real estate from rising too fast.